Swing Trade Ideas

 As this whole month market kept falling , well this can be opportunity to long few strong stocks on retracement !!

Presenting here few charts, with good structure , stocks which made new highs and are now on good supports accompanying Divergence.

1) Bank Of Baroda :

After making Yearly high of 899 in Jan 2013, its falling n now @ support level with CCI & Stochastic Divergence.
Buy above 740, Stop 720, Target 770 - 800.

2) Andhra Bank :

Andhra Bank did cross falling Trend line, however failed to make New high.
From 2011, 85-90 level acted as demand level.
Buy Above 97, Stop 94, Target 105+

3) Sobha Developers :

I did Post Sobha Developer earlier when it gave Breakout  HERE.
From level of 420, it made high of 473 and now its facing support.
Earlier stop is still intact, so one can try long Above today's High with 370-365 as Stop.



Tomorrow is Big day for market, Union Budget and Expiry Day !!
Sure, there will be lot of volatility.


For past few years Average Range on Budget Day is nearly 200 points in Nifty.
So better strategy for Budget day is to be Buyer on deep OTM options, gain or loose all type. (Lottery !! )
Be cautious with ATM options , as Volatility drop may deteriorate value very fast.

Trade Wisely or Stay on Sidelines !!

ICICI Bank

On daily Structure its One time framing down.
However Friday we saw Strong Open drive (Buying )with +ve closing , so possibly it can bounce back or least Rotations possible.
Can be bought if gets entry near 1087-89, if opens in Structure.
If open is outside VA,( on upside) cab be bought above 1102 for 1116.

Nifty Future for 20th-Feb- 2013

##  Neutral Extreme Day in Nifty.

##  IB Low And High both gets Broken and Market closes @ one Extreme.

##  OTF stepped later in  a day and held Market in Trend into Close.

##  So Now we look for Continuation to this Positive Close.

##  Which makes it Buy on declines. Ref levels to watch out are 5917 and 5937.

## Upside targets Could be 5970-92.

## Another Possibility if Nifty Opens Below 5957-52 , may Rotate in today's Single prints. ( 5941-24), This
     could be Open Trade ( Strictly open Trade, as on daily structure bias is +ve ).
   
    Similar Trade is Possible in TataSteel Future @ Open. i.e. Opens below 388.50, Short Trade possible.
    If Opens above 390.50, negate this trade.

Here is Tatasteel Chart,

Happy Trading !!!

Nifty Future For 19-Feb-2013

# Normal Variation Day in NF today.
   Initial Balance of 21 points, Total range of Day 39 Points, So Range Extension was nearly 1 X IB.

# Open Type was Open Test Drive, which has Higher market Conviction, but somehow drive lost its steam n
   Couldn't develop as big range day.

# Now Possibly market will Rotate in 5890-5946 Zone.

# Bias is Positive above 5877, imp Ref level.

# VPOC on upside is 5930-5969 and  5877 On Downside.


Posting Open Types Image Again for Reference,

Open Trade update from 08-Feb

Hi,
This is continuation in the short trade discussed last week here
As price is ruling in 70% of target mark, its management time for trade.
See a demand/supply level marked on TPO chart , aggressive short stop can be reduced to that level.
In other words if prices start trading above today's high so far (5908) near closing then its cautious for
shorts.

Nifty Future For 15th-Feb 2013

# Neutral Day Extreme in Nifty.

 i.e. IB gets broken on both sides, but close in one extreme.

# With this info, we look for Continuation to close, in this case down.

# Initiative Activity from sellers sides is required today , then possible Targets could be 5860-5845.

# However Rotations Also possible . 

# PVP again stands @ 5923...i.e. 3 days PVP in last 4 days, which makes that level very important.

# Above 5893, Can visit 5914-5920.

# If opens below yesterday lows, n conviction strong at open on downside then 5860-45 is high Probable.

Nifty Future For 14-Feb 2013

# Today Open showed Continuation to yesterday  closing. AS expected NF did hit 5970.

# Rotated Near Highs for almost 2 hours n got Rejected , closing in red.

# NF Day Type Today is Normal Variation Day .  

 Where we have Normal IB and it gets broken only on one side. Though today IB was wide.

# Remember 5921-23 has been 2 days PVP

# 5923 VPOC still holds from 12-Feb

Things to Watch Out tomorrow => 

# Considering today being  Normal Variation Day, we can say that OTF stepped in second half of day.

  Still i think bias is mild positive.

# If opens Near today's lows and it can be Bought for Intraday. ( only Above 5926-27)

# Below 5921 , we wait for more information.

Open NF

Continuation to yesterday Neutral Extreme day.

VPOC of 5956 is Hit, n rotating near that.

Possibly 5970 Coming.

NIFTY FUTURE For 13-Feb- 2013

# Day Type for Nifty Today Neutral  Extreme .

i.e. IB High and Low broken but close is on one Extreme.
 Today  its Bullish closing . We look for Continuation Tomorrow.

Ref Point 5930 ( Algo Bar Level ), so as long as Market stays above it, 5960-70 Possible on upside.
For that major hurdle is 5946-48

# 5921-22 Remains PVP ( Volume POC ) For two days, so that level is important now.

# 5903 Failed Auction Today.


Here is Profile Chart,

Nifty Future Open Bias

OAIR..Open Auction Inside Range ..open near Yvwap, PVP...Indicates there is no change in Bias.
May be there will Be Range Extension after Initial Balance development.

Stocks to Watch..Tatamotors Future bearish Bias, Possibly Gap fill .

Neutral Day -Nifty Future

Generally we should be cautious when  move happens in last half hour, most of time it proves as Spike only.
And next day that Spike gets repaired.
Exactly Same thing happened today.

# Open was in Spike, Inside Range, then there was not much conviction in open, then  it was clear that
    sellers not very keen to push market down. ( Mentioned about probable Rotations in this Post Here )

# Small Initial Balance , Both sides Range Extension

# Close within Range @ Center makes it Neutral  Day

Things to Watch Out tomorrow =>

# Today Being Neutral Day ( Balanced ), Tomorrow we can expect vertical move out of that balance Zone.

 As it has been trend for Nifty , one or two days of Balance lead to Big moves.

# See where NF opens, if it opens out of Value area,possibly that would be right direction to Trade.

Ref levels  5946 on Upside, 5912/5908.

Will follow up in Open Bias After market opens.

Happy Trading.

Open Trades 11 Feb 2013

NF opened in Range, Fridays Single prints.
Possibly there will be rotations in 5930-5896 range.
No conviction seen at open, So skipping NF trade.

personally i'm long in TataSteel Cash. 

Probable short setup from this week : 08 Feb-2013

Hi,
Greeting to every one, Vandana and Ed.

I am discussing today possibility of a positional short in Nifty Future with weekly chart.
This start with Minus Development as marked in chart, generally its simply failure of Flag completion,
if it would succeeded then blue channel uptrend line would have been tested. Along with this , a negative
divergence will mature, once this week's closes ( yet to happen tomorrow ) below 5969.

So a positional short can be initiated as long as it remain below 5969 during mid-session or near closing.
In any case , aggressive short stop for this would be a day closing above 5993 and hard stop for short would
be weekly closing above 6065. First target for this short setup would be 5845.

Open Trades 7th Feb 2013

Open Bias for NF mildly positive, may go to 5972-77.
Bias also positive for Bank NF.

Stock to watch out is SBI Fut. +ve above 2340

Nifty Future for 7th Feb 2013

Another Balanced,Low range day today.

=> NF rotated in previous day's range.

=> Only Difference is yesterday closed @ PVP and Today it Closed at lower side of Range after trying Range  
      Extension on upside.

=> So 2 days its Rotating below 6000 Level.

=> As NF is showing one or two days Balance leading to Imbalance, and After 2 consecutive Balanced days,
      there is possibility of Vertical move tomorrow or Friday.

Good Trade Opportunity will emerge only after break of this balance zone.

1) It may Continue Move Down , n vertical move on downside.

2) or It may move back inside earlier balance zones on daily structure. i.e. above 6000

Lets see how it opens n develops tomorrow.
But so far, bias is  on Downside.

P.S...There was not a single Algo bar today, so we have no ref level today based on it.

When Plan Fails... TataSteel

Trader Ed , written post about Tatasteel future.

He mentioned about  Possibility of sellers emerging around 401.50.

So that was possible Trade Idea we had in mind before Market Open.

And as we all Know markets are dynamic, there is continuous new information we get.
& we have to  keep assessing new information as it comes, to place n confirm Trade we planned.

Now Today Tatasteel Opened Above VA, Tested VAH and  it moved up very fast  (Open test Drive ) towards our ref point.

Here we get Alert that @ Open traders are not showing up on Sellers Side, Momentum is Totally Against us.
To Short @ ref point, we needed to See some weakness.
May be Rotations or Delta Divergence.
And clearly there were no Rotations, and Due to Data problem for exchange side, could confirm Delta at Open.

So We negate earlier stand/Plan And Skipped The trade. ( Which was Updated at Open ).

Its very easy when everything goes according to our plan, its important what we do when it doesn't.
Personally i don't believe in immediately  reversing Trade if it doesn't move according to plan,i Skip trade.

Here is chart,

Hope it helps n clarifies , why Trade  was skipped. 

TATASTEEL Breakout or Failure ?

The open was strong upward open drive from below Monday's low, but it developed value below Monday's Value area.

The day developed as balanced day. The reference point for breakout failure 401.50 was not tested today. It is relevant for Wednesday also.

The balanced day implies that odds favor a directional move for Wednesday. One possibility is test of 401.50 and emergence of sellers from there. Second is breakdown from Tuesday VA 399-396.80 and a down trend.

The open will dictate the course of action for Wednesday.

Nifty Future For 5th Feb 2013

What a nice Trading day today from Open !!

This is what happens when everything goes according to your plan.

What Happened Today :

# Strong Conviction From sellers from open. Trend Day.

# Wide IB , Continuous lower lows throughout session.

All one had to do is remain with your Trade. Such days are rare ,and we should make most of it.

# Good Range today. Approx 72 Points.

Structure is Long elongated Profile with Multiple Small Balance Zones.
Which looks like Poor Structure  to me, expect Repair may be tomorrow or in  few days.

Today's Volume Profile Chart

Imp ref point is Orange line which is Vwap 6022.

As per Algo bar ref level is 6030. Better to Be on short side below this level.

For Tomorrow  if there is Continuation to today's move down, or Opens inside Value area.

For move down we need to look at Broader picture,

As you can see NF is rotating in balance zone , and now its near to Balance edge.
If there is Breakdown from this zone,i.e. Break of 5980 we can expect it to move into earlier Balance Zone.
Then One can expect Destination Trade, may be as Swing Trade.

For day Trade, One can Try Shorts near 6012 or  Vwap based on where it opens and how is Conviction @ Open.

TATASTEEL Breakout ?

TATASTEEL futures contract closed just below the recent bracket low, is it a breakout? may be yes, may be not.
Let us analyze the context.

The breakout attempt on the upper edge of the bracket failed on Friday. And now it closed below the bracket low.

This failure at the top may have attracted sellers, odds favor a break down and vertical move.
But it may pull back into the bracket and continue to trade sideways.

So important reference point for Tuesday is 401.50.If we do not see an upward Open test drive or Open drive from/below Monday low, i.e.395.80, this is a good reference point to initiate short trade.

If the open indicates strong sellers, like open drive, then enter short around 395.80 reference point.

Nifty Analysis for 4 Feb 2013

That's  Market Profile Chart for Nifty Future. What we can see on the chart ,

1) Double Distribution day, Point of Control is falling down from last 4 days.

2) There is Poor High from 29/1 which is not repaired yet.
   
 Poor High / Low ( Unsecured or Incomplete )  means is Exhaustion. Logic behind it is, there should be swift move in forming excess or end of auction. But as you see here price rotating near High /Low means
there is absence of strong buyers/sellers . These Poor High/Lows get repaired.

3) Minus development, that is Single Prints Inside VA, which is important information. Here its 6062.
    so 6062 is important Ref point , which also matches with Algo bar ref point.

## Other Observation is , One day NF has Balanced , Small range day , next day it tries to go out of balance.
     Like it did on 28 Jan ( Balance ) , Next day Imbalance of that zone.( 29 Jan)
     Also 30/31 Jan Balance Small range day , tried to move out of Balance on 1 Feb. 2013.

   Now if you Observe this balance to imbalance, twice it tried to Imbalance on Upside but failed to attract Buyers  And Closed on opposite side , i.e. lower end. ( 29  Jan and 1 Feb )
This makes me think that market is weak, but this is  also in small  bracket on daily Structure , which is approx 80-100 points.

Plan for Monday :

Observe whether it Opens back into Value area , if there is no strong commitment from Buyers side.
I will be try shorts Below 6062 level, for  6005-6010 level.
And if there is strong open on buyers side , crossing 6060-65 One can expect Poor High getting repaired.

Will Update if there is any strong Open conviction on Monday.

P.S.  Double Distribution day  is generally followed by Normal or Non Trend day.
        In Normal day there is Wide Initial Balance.

1-Feb-2013 Open

Not Trading Today.

Stocks to watch ICICI BANK.Fut. Negative bias


TataSteel Fut..Strong +ve open, watch out if 412 holds.